The biggest climate policy you’ve (probably) never heard of

Politics is strange. This week, the House of Commons passed into law potentially the single biggest climate policy in the government’s entire net zero strategy. But listening to the headlines on the radio or reading the front pages, you would  be forgiven for never having heard of the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. It is a big deal, as the policy will scale up electric vehicle (EVs) sales across the UK, ultimately leading to the replacement of the dirty internal combustion engine vehicles that power our lives today.

Bizarrely, this has happened in the middle of COP28, the biggest international climate conference of the year, taking place in Dubai. Normally at these events, world leaders desperately look for an announcement to set them apart from the rest of the world. Every country is vying to be seen at the cutting edge, pushing ambition and in the lead.

You would have expected to see Rishi Sunak proudly proclaiming the UK’s ‘world leading’ decision to phase out petrol and diesel cars by 2035. The trajectory at which sales of zero emission alternatives will rise every year under the new ZEV mandate is likely to be faster in the UK than in the EU (a Brexit dividend, you could argue) or the United States. With this, we are set to make headway in driving down the emissions of the UK’s most polluting sector in a way that previous governments have failed to do.

Despite this, the current state of our politics is such that politicians won’t talk about their climate policy, afraid it will become a weapon in the culture war. In fact, the prime minister has leaned into that culture war with an eye on winning votes at the general election, watering down his policy by extending the date where consumers can buy internal combustion engine cars.

Why we should celebrate the ZEV mandateThe ZEV mandate is essentially a sales quota for car and van manufacturers. Each year they will have to sell an increasing proportion of new zero emission vehicles, defined in the legislation as vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions, with capability to be driven over 100 miles in one go.

While any technology that fits this definition could be counted, manufacturers have voted with their feet. This policy is all about scaling up EVs.

EVs are around three times cleaner than internal combustion engine vehicles over the course of their lifetime. And the good news is that this will continue to improve as the electricity system decarbonises. EVs also cut air pollution as they do not produce nitrous oxides, and particulate matter is limited by the use of regenerative braking systems rather than just traditional brake pads.

The impacts aren’t just environmental. Although usually more costly to buy, a larger supply of EVs will bring upfront sales prices down. Already, the electric MG4 is at cost parity with its petrol equivalent and, over the coming years, more and more EV models will follow suit. Crucially, higher EV sales are now filtering into the second hand market where around 80 per cent of vehicle transactions happen, meaning lower income drivers can benefit from cheaper to run, cleaner vehicles.

Despite record electricity prices in the last year, electric cars are still cheaper to run than petrol or diesel models. And the gap should widen over time as analysts expect electricity prices to come down as petrol and diesel prices climb.

Have we solved the emissions problem? While they are zero emission from the tailpipe, a lot of energy goes into making EVs. So they still have significant embodied emissions and there are many concerns around what goes into making them. Critical materials like lithium, copper, nickel, manganese and cobalt are all required to build and charge EVs. These materials have complicated supply chains, and their extraction raises human rights and other environmental issues which must be addressed. Green Alliance has long been a leading proponent of the circular economy and has pushed the government for a more strategic approach to battery manufacturing, recycling and disposal with social and environmental principles at its heart.

To meet the UK’s carbon targets, set by government’s independent advisers, the Climate Change Committee, we should ideally be scaling up EVs even faster than the trajectories set in the ZEV mandate. But changing business models over a short period will be a challenge for manufacturers and so there were understandable pressures on the government to strike a balance between climate ambition and the concerns of vehicle manufacturers.

But how else should we make up the shortfall in the emissions cuts needed from the transport sector to reach net zero? Ultimately, the solution comes down to the principles of ‘avoid, shift and improve’. The ZEV mandate is an improvement. It will help to drive down emissions from road journeys. But we should also be shifting more journeys from the private car to alternatives, like public transport, walking and cycling. And a wider reimagining of transport, via better planning and changes to the way we go about our lives, could help us to avoid unnecessary journeys altogether.

This week we celebrate the huge political win that the ZEV mandate represents. Next, we start on the challenge of building a whole transport system fit for a sustainable future.