Continued global shocks make the case for food system change stronger than ever

With conflict in Iran in its third week, the downstream economic impacts are becoming clearer. Oil and liquefied natural gas prices have dominated the reporting, but another ripple effect is receiving far less attention: food.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes, has pushed up fertiliser prices. Sixty per cent of the fertiliser used by British farmers is imported, meaning geopolitical shocks can quickly translate into higher production costs and, ultimately, higher food prices.

But the impact of this latest crisis is not simply about the availability of fertiliser. It is a reminder of something more fundamental: that the UK food system is highly exposed to external shocks.

Shocks from environmental change are now inevitable
Today the trigger is geopolitical instability. But, increasingly, the biggest shocks will come from climate change.

The UK government’s own national security assessment on global ecosystem collapse warns that climate change and nature loss are among the most significant threats to UK food production. Soil degradation, pollinator loss, drought and flooding are already affecting domestic yields, while extreme weather overseas is disrupting the global supply chains the UK relies upon. Recent floods in parts of Spain and Morocco, regions that supply large quantities of the UK’s fruit and vegetables including around 65% of our cucumbers, are a reminder of how quickly these disruptions affect food availability and prices.

The cost of failing to adapt will be significant. Analysis by the Institute of Grocery Distribution estimates that maintaining a ‘business as usual’ food system could expose the UK to an additional £2.6 billion in commodity sourcing costs, increases that will ultimately ripple through supply chains and reach consumers as higher prices at the checkout.

Expanding UK horticulture is an obvious solution
In other words, food system resilience sits right between core government priorities: national security, economic growth and controlling the cost of living.

The good news is that solutions already exist.

A major opportunity lies in horticulture. UK consumption of fruit and vegetables would need to increase by around 86 per cent to meet dietary guidelines. Expanding domestic production to meet this demand could add £2.3 billion to the UK economy, create over 23,000 jobs and increase farm profits.

Despite this opportunity, as of 2025, the UK imported up to 80 per cent of its fruit and 47 per cent of its vegetables. Strengthening the domestic horticulture sector would improve resilience to global supply disruptions while also supporting healthier diets.

Diet itself is also part of the resilience picture. Research suggests that shifting towards less meat-intensive diets and greater use of alternative proteins could increase the UK’s food self-sufficiency from around 47 per cent today to roughly 64 per cent by 2050. Because plant-based protein production requires fewer imported inputs and less land than meat production, they are less vulnerable to the shocks currently affecting global markets.

Together, these changes would make the food system more resilient, healthier and more sustainable. What is currently missing is the long term framework needed to deliver them.

Lack of government co-ordination is a problem
The government has taken some helpful initial steps. They have committed to a Horticulture Growth Strategy, and this week’s Land Use Framework marks an important step towards using land more strategically: ensuring food production is better aligned with climate risks, such as flooding, while restoring nature and strengthening resilience.

However, food policy in the UK remains fragmented across multiple departments, with no single framework aligning objectives on farming, health, climate and food security. As global shocks become more frequent, that lack of co-ordination is becoming increasingly problematic.

That is why this week Green Alliance, The Food Foundation and Sustain brought together MPs, policy makers and food industry representatives in Parliament to make the case for a Good Food Bill.

The proposed legislation would build on the government’s Food Strategy by creating a long term framework for action. Rather than prescribing specific policies, it would establish clear goals, require regular action plans and improve accountability across government.

In a world of increasing geopolitical tension and climate instability, shocks to the food system are becoming more likely, not less. The question is no longer whether disruptions will occur, but how prepared we are for them when they inevitably do.

A more resilient food system will not emerge by accident. It will require deliberate policy choices. A Good Food Bill would provide a framework to make those choices possible.